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TRANSFORMATIVE
SCENARIOS

The future is not given, it is created.

We can’t predict or control what will happen, but we can have an influence on what is coming. The transformative scenarios – stories that describe what might happen in the future – allow us to inspire and stimulate the devising of strategies, decisions and actions in the present which will influence the future.

At Colabora Moda Sustentavel, we came up with four Scenarios for the future of fashion in Brazil by 2035.  They have broadened our systemic understanding of the sector and served as input for creating and prototyping collaborative solutions that can improve sustainability in the fashion supply chain over the next few years.

Image kindly provided by Instituto C&A

CONSTRUCTION
METHODOLOGY

CHALLENGE

Scenarios should help people look at previously unthinkable or imperceptible options and challenge the current way of understanding reality

RELEVANCY

Scenarios should address issues that are important to those with an interest in the subject

PLAUSIBILITY

They are backed up by facts and have a sense of logic, they are reasonable and people can see that the scenarios could happen

CLARITY

Scenarios should be easy to remember and simple to describe, making it possible to identify the particularities of each story

CONSTRUCTION
METHODOLOGY

THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SCENARIOS FOLLOWS A RIGOROUS PROCESS THAT IS BOTH ANALYTICAL AS WELL AS CREATIVE. LEARN ABOUT THE MAIN STAGES WE WALKED THROUGH:

  1. Co-creation solutions: an opportunity to prototype sustainability
    solutions for the sector that are effective for the entire system
  2. Definition of the scenarios’ time horizon
  3. The mapping of the driving forces, that is, those social, technological,
    environmental,economic and political forces that potentially have a major effect on the issues covered by the map of concerns
  4. Classification of forces by their impact.  What matters most are those forces that have high impac
  5. Classification of forces by predictability. Taking into account the forces with the highest impact, those with the greatest predictability are the system’s certainties for the future, and they become part of all the scenarios. For Colabora Moda Sustentavel, nine certainties about the future of fashion in Brazil in 2035 were systematized:a) the nature of public policies will have an impact on the sector
    b) there will be a shift in consumer behavior
    c) the concept of workforce will be redefined
    d) the migration influx will carry on
    e) profit will remain a key driver of business decisions
    f) the tension between profitability and sustainability will persist in the sector’s mindset
    g) climate change will affect the availability of natural resources, leading to reconfigurations within the chain
    h) technology will impact the apparel sector as to how we produce, commercialize and relate to fashion
    i) clothing consumption will carry on
  6. Definition of uncertainties: driving forces with lower predictability make one scenario distinct from another, leading to different futuresCo-creation of solutions: opportunity to prototype sustainability solutions for the sector which are effective for the overall syste

A SET OF FOUR SCENARIOS
DEVELOPED COLLECTIVELY

These are not aspirational scenarios, but scenarios that may come to happen.

LOOSE STITCH

Generalized setbacks with political and financial conflicts, widespread individualism and a protectionist approach to international trade lead to a fashion market that is geared fundamentally towards profit. Collaboration between sectors is fragile. The Brazilian economy is in turmoil and there is little investment in education and technology. There are limited mechanisms of social control over precarious work, a predicament that is aggravated by the rise in unemployment brought about by the replacement of labor by automated production and by intense migration movements across the continent.

TIED CHAIN STITCH

The power of the interventionist state prevails, and it seeks to regulate actions of other sectors. The state has the monopoly on Big Data and inspection is increasing in the fashion production chain, both in labor and environmental issues. Limited engagement in the development of public policies hinders innovation and investment in technology, which comes from the private sector. Dialogue is compromised and inequality persists. Shopping malls are the preferred spaces to experience consumption; online commerce prevails.

MESH STITCH

Collaboration between the state, companies and the organized civil society is taking on a strategic role in the country as the links in the chain come together. Social and environmental issues are increasingly more relevant in gauging the results of the overall fashion supply chain and the companies that are part of it. There is substantial investment in science and technology. Jobs in the sector are shrinking as a result of technological developments, but labor relations are improving significantly. Brazil is embarking on the age of fashion customization, with the outsourcing of the production process and the dissemination of mini-factories. Consumers are demanding more sustainable goods.

CYBER STITCH

Disruptive technological leaps and changes in consumer awareness are reshaping the fashion world. New materials replace conventional raw materials, production is revamped and the professional training is broadened and further developed. There is a sharp reduction in number of jobs, but precarious working conditions are decreasing and new social protection mechanisms - such as fewer working hours - are being put in place to guarantee more employment. Fashion economy is moving towards a circular model as a result of the environmental crisis, which is affecting society's awareness, and the pressure for sustainable production.

The four scenarios presented above reflect what the project team has jointly envisioned for the future of fashion in Brazil up until 2035.

CHECK OUT THE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF FASHION IN BRAZIL IN 2035

The following table is designed to make it easier to compare the four scenarios based on the indicators identified by the project team.

READ THE COMPARATIVE TABLE